The Problem
First, computers and robots are replacing workers in the workforce. Also, the workers they are replacing are well-paid manufacturing workers, construction workers, farmers, and miners. These used to be the main part of the middle class. This leaves highly paid doctors, lawyers, architects, stockbrokers, scientists, engineers, construction managers and company managers (>$100k salary) at one end of the pay scale, and service workers-ie retail sales, landscapers, waitresses and teaching aids (<$30k wages) at the other. The middle class ($30k to $100k) that now consists mostly of teachers, nurses, accountants, and government workers, are dwindling as a proportion of the workforce.
The middle class used to have large numbers of manufacturing workers, small businessmen, miners, draftsmen, and secretaries. Robots and special purpose equipment are taking over the jobs of manufacturing workers, construction workers and miners. Computers are taking over the jobs of draftsmen and secretaries. And huge companies (example Walmart) are forcing out the less competitive small businesses. In addition, in the US, many good jobs are being shipped overseas to take advantage of lower production costs. Thus, the middle class is disappearing and the population in the US and many other nations is being divided into the rich and the poor. This is a dangerous situation; a formula for generating discontent and instability. In order to regenerate the middle class, we need an industry that uses a large group of workers that are well paid ($30k to $100k) and invulnerable to takeover by computers and robots. Further, shipping these jobs to nations with lower wages to lower production costs should not be economically useful. Finally, the next ten to twenty years is the ideal time for this industry to come on line as the world struggles to rebuild a workforce that was devastated by the recent recession. Such an industry is just now becoming available.
The Solution
The portion of the old middle class that appears capable of regeneration is small business. It is necessary to find:
- Business opportunities that are small because small is the economic optimum.
- Businesses that are free from encroachment by computers and robots because operation by humans is the best way to operate.
- Businesses that have a large market for their product.
One candidate is available and is described on Aquater2050.com. The business consists of a vessel that harvests energy from the oceans by use of wind and wave generators. The vessel can earn $50k to $100k per year. There is room for up to 200 million such vessels in the high-energy areas (wind velocity >15 knots) of the oceans. Roughly 200 million vessels will be necessary to replace fossil fuels in providing energy for the world’s population as fossil fuels are used up or rendered obsolete by non-polluting fuels. The energy obtained is pollution free. The vessel cannot be made substantially larger to earn more because it will interfere with its own energy harvesting capability. Computers and robots are not well suited to replace the captains of these vessels because they are not well suited for the planning and decision-making skills required to operate these vessels. And finally, there is an urgency in bringing this industry on line since energy and environmental issues require that it become a major producer in the next 10 to 20 years (see Aquater2050 Papers No. 1 and No. 2).
Is It Practical?
Since an enormous amount of construction is required to build 200 million SEMAN, it is proper to ask if the capability exists to do this construction and if the materials are available. SEMAN construction requires much the same skills as house construction and uses much the same materials (wood, glue, steel and aluminum fittings, carpet, and fabrics). In fact, the primary material used, birch plywood, comes from birch trees common in Russia, Finland and northeast US. The SEMAN is, in fact, a home for a family of four with sails and some extra electrical additions (primarily electric generators), so either a home or a SEMAN would have to be built for each new family as population increases (see Aquater Papers Nos. 1 and 2). This situation contrasts with other green energy producers such as solar cells. Solar cells have a serious production limit caused by a shortage of both worker skills and refined solar cell materials, and could not ramp up into the dominant energy producer in ten to twenty years.
Thus no new skills or materials are required for SEMAN construction and building 200 million SEMAN is roughly the same as building 200 million homes (except for the electrical equipment) that would have to be built anyway. On a world-wide basis, 200 million homes over 40 years is not an impossible job.
Each vessel constitutes a small business capable of supporting one family of four to six. If a large company bought many of these boats, it would not keep other single-family boats from operating competitively. Cooperatives of single-family boats could be formed for marketing purposes in competition with company owned boats. Finally, shipping the jobs generated by SEMAN to nations with low wages to reduce costs is not an option for obvious reasons. What will be happening here is that energy money will be going from the Arab countries and large energy companies such as Exon and Shell to small energy producers in their SEMAN.
It should be noted that 200 million jobs as captains of these boats is about the number of people estimated to be able to qualify as boat captains world-wide, and is a large fraction of the unemployed world-wide. Aquater2050 is also proposing a way to educate unemployed families and fund their entry into this life. Thus it may be possible to drastically reduce world unemployment and start generating a world middle class.
Conclusions
It appears feasible to begin to regenerate the middle class (earning $50k to $100k) by starting up many small family businesses that consist of small vessels (SEMAN) capable of harvesting energy on the ocean. These businesses are not capable of replacement by larger businesses, computers and robots, and the jobs generated cannot be shipped to low wage countries to lower production costs. Finally, a larger vessel would actually be less efficient, and make less money, so it would not be profitable for larger vessels to crowd out the smaller, single-family SEMAN. A large number (~200 million) of vessels (and thus boat captains and other workers) is necessary to replace fossil fuels, so it may actually be possible to start generating a world middle class. The prototype vessel is almost ready for launching and it, along with a unique business model to get these SEMAN started is described on the www.Aquater2050.com site.