The Problem

Many experts in the field predict (and hope) that population will peak out at nine to ten billion, and then reduce to about eight billion as a sustainable population. If this is true, we can, and should, design a sustainable (near equilibrium) economic system based on a population of about eight billion. An attempt to design such a system is summarized in the Aquater Papers AP1.1through AP2.5. However, it is not clear that the population will stabilize as hoped. Some experts believe that even eight billion cannot be sustained over the long term. The population may continue to rise even after it initially settles to a near constant value, albeit at a much lower rate, until starvation or war imposes a limit. In the past, it has been true that the population in a country with natural boundaries increases until natural limits such as starvation, war or disease curb it.

Perhaps more important, it has been suggested that even if the population does stabilize, mankind cannot operate under an equilibrium system. According to this theory, mankind must both grow and expand, or shrink and die out. Prior civilizations (Rome and China, for example) reached peaks and tried to stabilize their population and borders with natural boundaries and walls. Instead of stabilizing as planned, Rome’s population and power started to contract, and eventually, it’s civilization ended up dying out under pressure from outside “barbarian” civilizations. China expanded and died back, then expanded and died back again as external civilizations (Mongols, etc) pressed in. In at least one case, however the decision to limit China’s growth came from within. Both civilizations entered decadent or contracting phases as soon as they stopped expanding. They could not maintain a constant area and a constant internal population and stable political state for long. It is yet to be seen whether a civilization with a stable area, population level and political system can maintain that state over the long term even if there is no pressure from external civilizations. 

It seems possible that earth’s population may reach its sustainable capacity and then become unstable and may then begin to decay even if there is no pressure from an external civilization (from another stellar system, for example). Thus, it may be necessary to either work out the principles of a static, sustainable, non-expanding civilization and apply them to our civilization, or to provide a means for man’s expansion beyond this earth, if man’s civilization is to survive. The rules of operation of a static, sustainable economic system have been summarized in the Aquater papers AP1.1 through AP2.5. In AP3.1, a practical means to access a new very large living space and energy source to accommodate man’s further expansion was also described. Here, we will ask the question can a new civilization fill this new, large living space without depending on material and economic support from earth?

The Solution

Since the land is filled and the ocean is expected to be filled in the near term future by the vessels harvesting energy, the next available colonization space is satellites in earth orbit. The problem is that space colonization using satellites is extremely expensive using existing methods of getting in orbit. Thus, large-scale colonization of space near earth is impractical without a significant reduction in booster and satellite costs. In order to achieve this goal, the following technologies are needed:

• A cheap method of boosting satellites and materials into orbit, and bringing materials and satellites back to the ground.
• A cheap energy source for getting into orbit and for operating on orbit..
• A cheap means of supplying expendables on orbit, and bringing orbit products to the ground.
• A means of making a living on orbit.

The first three items above were described in AP3.1. However the details of a system that can supply energy and materials to orbit and back to ground, as well as make payments to earth people for goods and services provided by them and thus provide a means of making a living on orbit was not. Here we will describe the Orbital Energy Supply System, which provides this function.

The people who live on orbit will be expected to provide trade goods that will pay for the capital expense of the satellite, the boost into orbit, and the expendables supplied on orbit. A top-level list of these goods and services was provided in AP3.1. Here we will provide details for a total orbital trade system.

This can be done by:

• Diverting sunlight to the ground on the night side of earth to illuminate solar cells that would be unused during the night. Deploying large reflectors in orbit that catch sunlight and divert it to the area on the ground that contains solar cells at night would do this.
• Manufacturing machines, drugs and chemicals that require zero gravity conditions. Note that these products can be transported to the ground by use of the momentum beam.
• Manufacturing and maintaining nodes that can provide momentum beams for transport of satellites anywhere in the solar system and perhaps beyond. Note that this system requires that the beams transfer the launch point momentum of the nodes to the ground, a task well suited to the synchronous beams on the equatorial ocean.
• Manufacturing and maintaining a nuclear fission reactor in orbit for producing nuclear fuel for satellite use from U238. This must be in a synchronous orbit or beyond to insure that the reactor could never impact earth due to orbit decay. Also, the nuclear material used for the reactor must be put on orbit in small amounts, so that an accident in getting it on orbit will only result in a small amount of nuclear material impacting earth. Finally, the booster station should be on the ocean to insure that an accident results in the material going into the deep ocean rather than on land.
• Mining the asteroid belt for high value metals and other materials and transporting them to the earth’s surface for sale. Note, this process would require the satellite involved to have a nuclear reactor for electric power because it would operate beyond solar power range. Also, momentum beams would be required for transport of these materials to ground.
• Using the momentum transport beams noted above to explore and colonize Mars, the Asteroids, and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn wherever it is profitable to do so. 

The key to economic independence of the orbital civilization is producing a high value product and working out a practical and cheap system to transport this product to the ground and thus insuring a profit. The nations of the earth have already indicated some of the things they are willing to pay for. They are the following.

1. Boosting satellites into orbit.
2. Transferring satellites and materials to other places in the solar system.
3. Providing solar energy to receivers on earth.
4. Getting rid of carbon that is causing global warming.
5. Getting rid of dangerous radioactive decay products from nuclear reactors.
6. Making nuclear fuel for use on earth and to power satellites that are going beyond the orbits that make solar cells practical to operate.
7. Manufacturing machines, drugs and chemicals that require zero gravity conditions.
8. Mining the asteroid belt for high value metals and other materials and transporting them to the earth’s surface for sale.

The basic costs for operating a satellite on orbit capable of supporting a family of four is roughly as follows.

• Mortgage for the living and food and water production equipment that costs roughly $400,000 is ~$2,000/mo.
• Cost of putting such a satellite (weight~5,000 KG) on synchronous equatorial orbit using the momentum beam booster system is ~$1,100,000, so the monthly booster mortgage is ~$5,500/mo.
• Cost of monthly parts and supplies is ~$2,000/mo.
• Cost of mortgage for equipment needed for making a living (~ $200,000) is ~$1,000/mo.
• Total monthly expense is ~$10,500.

The income from each way to make a living is roughly as follows.

1. Boosting satellites into orbit. Current booster cost is ~$10,000 to $50,000/KG of payload on orbit. The momentum beam can put satellites in synchronous equatorial orbit for ~$220/KG, so the market for boosting into orbit is secure on a basis of cost. Thus a very competitive cost that is low enough to encourage traffic would be ~$1,000/KG. Assuming ~10,000 KG/mo is put on orbit, the Orbital Aquaters can make ~$8,000,000/mo. This income can be distributed to the Orbital Aquaters who will build and operate the system, as a return on investment.
2. Transferring satellites into other orbits in the solar system. Here, a system of momentum beams to the often-traveled zones of the solar system (such as the asteroid belt for mining) will be built. This income will become larger as time goes on and the practical earth orbits are filled, forcing Orbital Aquaters to use other orbits to live in, and asteroid mining to increase. The income from this sector is impossible to estimate at this time, since it depends on solar orbit population, but it can be distributed to the Orbital Aquaters, who will build and operate the system, as a return on their investment.
3. Providing energy to receivers on earth. The sun provides ~1 kw/sq M. If that energy is concentrated (about 10/1 concentration factor) and reflected to the surface and converted to electrical energy (efficiency 0.2) by solar cell methods (cost ~$400/sq M for solar cells), and then sold for $.08/kwh, the net output would be ~$100/mo sq M. If an 11 M x11 M collector was used on orbit, the output would be ~$12,000/mo. This would provide basic income for those who can find space to operate around the earth. Eventually, new immigrants would have to go to solar orbits or orbit other planets.
4. Getting rid of carbon that’s causing global warming. The pellets in the momentum beam are made of carbon and hydrogen. If the pellets needed to supply the force in the momentum beam are directed away from the catchers on earth, then these pellets will escape into space. If, on average, one of these pellets per second is sent accidentally (or on purpose) into space, and each weighs ~1.0 LB, and the amount paid to the Orbital Aquaters for each pound of carbon sent into space is the same as the amount paid to sequester the carbon on the bottom of the ocean, then $17,000/mo would be paid to the Orbital Aquaters. An expense of $3,600 would be needed to replace these pellets for a profit of  $13,400 per month, which can be divided among the orbital Aquaters. Also 2.6 million pounds of carbon will be sent into the sun each month. The momentum beam can be adjusted to increase the number of pellets sent into space and increase the profit for the Orbital Aquaters according to the amount of carbon that earth is willing to pay to eliminate entirely from its surface and not just sequester.
5. Getting rid of dangerous radioactive decay products. These products can be transported into the sun using the momentum beam, and carried inside the beam pellets. It is not possible to estimate the income possible from such a transport trade, but it is much larger than that for getting rid of carbon because the products are dangerous.
6. Making nuclear fuel. Here, it would be necessary to operate reactors on orbit. The orbits would not have to be earth orbits, so for safety, they would probably be solar orbits. Here again, it is not possible to estimate the income possible for this product, but it is larger than that for dangerous radioactive decay products because of the usefulness of the product for energy production on remote earth sites and for satellites beyond the orbit of earth.
7. Manufacturing machines, drugs and chemicals. Here again, it is not possible to estimate the income possible, but it is expected to be large.
8. Mining the asteroid belt. Here again, it is not possible to estimate the income possible, but it is expected to be large.

It is obvious, that a large, independent civilization can be built in the various orbits possible around the earth and sun.

Summary and Conclusions

It has been shown that a set of stable launch platforms, and a supply system can be manufactured for the energy, consumables and pellets needed to support a set of satellites. This system can be manufactured and supported by the SEMAN and the AOTN (Aquater Ocean Trade Network) of the Aquater Alliance. This orbital system will be called the Orbital Energy Supply System (OESS).