AQUATER2050 PAPER NO. 4
The Problem
Because we are living longer and longer, we (or our employers) are not making enough retirement payments during our working lifetimes to cover our retirement incomes after we die. Until recently, this problem was not important, because there were many workers for each retiree, so the shortfall in one generation’s retirement fund usage could be made up by the excess in the next generation’s payments from many workers. Now, however, the number of workers for each retiree is dropping toward 2 to 1, and that ratio is not enough to cover the current generation’s retirement.
The Evidence
This problem is not controversial. All observers in the field agree that the problem is real. There have been an increasing number of retirement funds (both public and private) that either are in trouble now, or will go bankrupt within the next few decades.
Is Action Required?
There is no question that something must be done. All recent analyses indicate that current practices cannot continue, or most retirement funds (including Social Security) will go bankrupt within a few decades. Also, most people are counting on these funds for support when they retire.
The Solution
There are three possible solutions to this problem.
- Increase the contributions of the current, working generation to provide support for the older generation (For example, raise the social security tax.)
- Raise the retirement age, so a smaller number of retirees is being supported. (For example, increase the retirement age for social security.)
- Reduce the size of the retired group entitled to receive benefits without reducing the number contributing to the fund.
There are limits to our ability to use each of these remedies. Specifically:
- There is a limit to how much tax and retirement contribution people can pay or are willing to pay. Experience has taught that if taxes are too high, people stop working and exit the normal economic system. There is no incentive to work. Current evidence shows that a tax of ~60% or more causes people to stop working and either retire or find a way to live without showing income and thus having to pay tax. As an example, in California, the sum of the federal and state income tax, social security tax, and sales tax exceeds 50% for a typical middle class couple. Thus we are perilously close to the limit people will accept.
- There is a limit to how much the retirement age can be raised, or people will opt out of the retirement system. People have to believe that they can retire early enough to be able to enjoy several years of retirement while still in good health. On average, we die sometime between 79 years old (men) and 83 years old (women). We begin to lose our health, on average, about 5 years before that (74-78). Thus, if we want 5 to 10 years of retirement while in good health (which most do), we must retire at age 65 to 70. Right now, most expect to be able to retire between 65 and 67. Thus we are close to the maximum retirement age people will accept.
- Thus we come down to the last alternative. Is there a way to reduce the size of the group entitled to retirement pay without reducing the number paying into the retirement fund? The answer is yes. There is a life style just now coming on line that provides a means of inexpensive travel and entertainment, pays for food and housing and gives a modest cash profit, that is well suited to people getting ready to retire. It is life on the sea operating a vessel called a SEMAN (see Aquater2050.com). This vessel allows one to make fresh water, grow food and harvest energy for sale on land. One can travel to any place near the ocean for free, and enjoy all the electronic entertainment a land dweller enjoys. A potential retiree could choose to have this life rather than retire on social security, and thus enjoy a good life without tapping the retirement fund if Social Security would provide aid in obtaining the SEMAN initially. In return, a portion of the profits from the SEMAN would come back to the Social Security fund as lease or mortgage payments. If the owner wishes to move off the ocean, or if the owner loses his or her health and must move to land, the SEMAN would revert back to the Social Security fund to be leased or sold to a new retiree. Social Security payments can then be relegated to a backup to be used when health fails for those who choose this life. It is believed that a significant number of potential retirees (~10-20%) will choose this lifestyle and thus reduce the pressure on the Social Security fund. If this belief is true, the Social Security fund would remain solvent for another 30 to 50 years, and with some adjustments, the fund could be made solvent for the foreseeable future.
Conclusions
Our retirement funds (including Social Security) cannot support the people who expect to use it. There are three ways to save these retirement funds, increase retirement payments, increase the retirement age, or reduce the size of the group entitled to retirement pay. The first two options have serious economic and political limitations. A way to implement the third is just now becoming available. A vessel called the SEMAN that harvests energy and grows food on the ocean will soon be available for potential retirees. It can operate for a profit and allow retirees to travel and vacation at the same time. A potential retiree could choose to operate a SEMAN until his or her health fails rather than go on Social Security. Thus, for some, Social Security can be relegated to a back up to be used only when health fails later in life.