The problem

There are two problems in reality. The simplest is air pollution by trace gasses. Here small amounts of dangerous gasses (usually acids) are released in a chemical reaction-usually combustion. These gasses have a bad impact on the environment, and must be eliminated. A good example is sulfur in coal. The sulfur in coal is oxidized into an acid by combustion inside a power plant and is washed out of the atmosphere by rain, making “acid rain”. When enough acid rain collects, it starts killing plants, trees and fish. Such a pollution problem is readily traced and is usually not controversial. Only how to get rid of the pollution is controversial. Usually a procedure can be found, but it may be expensive. This type of problem will not be addressed further here.

The more complex problem is air pollution that causes a composition change in the atmosphere. This is exemplified by the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane and its impact on earth’s average temperature. The theory and the best data indicate that if too much carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gasses) get into the air, they pass the visible radiation down to the earth where it is absorbed and converted to infrared radiation. The infrared radiation is absorbed by and heats the atmosphere and this process changes the earth’s heat balance. Thus, the average temperature of the earth’s atmosphere is raised, and so this process is called global warming.

This theory of global warming is controversial. One thing that makes this theory controversial is that all fossil fuels generate carbon dioxide when burned, and the vast majority of our energy is obtained by burning fossil fuels, so it is very difficult (and expensive) to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide that is emitted. Thus there is a very strong motive to disbelieve this theory.

Another problem is that the earth has climate zones that move with average temperature, so the zone position changes as the average temperature increases. Thus at any earth position, the temperature may be increasing (due to global warming) or decreasing (due to zone position movement). Critics ask which temperature should they believe. The answer, of course, is that it is the average of the temperatures in all climate zones that determines the average earth temperature. This average cannot be determined by a measurement in only one earth position and so it is controversial.

A third thing that makes this global warming controversial is the impact it may have on the earth’s livability.  It may not be possible to just wait for the effects to settle out, and then take action. We may have to decide on an action plan now. Consider the following sequence of events. If the earth is warming, several things will happen.

O The earth’s glaciers and ice caps will be reduced, and eventually disappear. Then less of the visible radiation on the earth will be reflected into space, and more will be captured.. That will tend to increase the earth’s average temperature. Also, some of the ocean’s most productive zones are under ice, so a loss of ice may result in a loss in the ocean’s fish production.

O The melted ice will raise the mean sea level and low-lying land will be submerged. If so, some of the most important and valuable real estate in the world will be submerged. Also, important and well-used aquifers near the edge of the oceans will become salty and unusable.

O The climate zones will move north in the northern hemisphere (and south in the southern hemisphere), and some old fertile agriculture zones will dry up and some new zones will be made waterlogged. Some believe that there will be a net loss of productive agricultural area. Others believe there will be a net gain. Computer models are being constructed to determine which view is correct.

O The oceans will warm and spread. This will kill many reefs in the ocean and cypress forests on the edge of the ocean where fish breed, with a resulting loss of fish production. O All extremes in weather will increase in frequency and strength. Hurricanes will increase in strength and number. Droughts will increase in strength and frequency. Hot (and cold) spells will increase in strength and frequency.

O The aerosols in the earth’s atmosphere (fog, dust, ice and water particles, sulfur dioxide, etc) will change. An increase will increase the amount of visible radiation reflected by the atmosphere, and this could decrease the amount of radiation absorbed by the atmosphere and thus the earth’s temperature. Most experts expect an aerosol increase, and a resultant reduction in solar absorption and temperature.

O Most important, the permafrost layer in the arctic is expected to melt. This will cause the vegetation frozen in this layer to decompose and emit methane and carbon dioxide that would raise the earth’s temperature even more.

Two competing processes determine the earth’s temperature-those that absorb visible radiation and convert it to infrared radiation which is then absorbed in the atmosphere by greenhouse gasses as mentioned above, and those that reflect visible radiation. Thus the concentration of greenhouse gasses is key to the heat absorption process and glaciers and aerosols are key to the reflection process. So, to warm, increase greenhouse gasses; to cool, increase glaciers, and aerosols. Greenhouse gas concentration is determined by an equilibrium reaction between emitters and absorbers of the gasses. Primary emitters are volcanoes (carbon dioxide), grazing animals (methane), decaying vegetation (methane) and man (carbon dioxide and methane).  There are many processes that absorb carbon dioxide and aid in the formation of this equilibrium. The most important are forest growth and plankton growth and resultant carbonate rock (limestone) formation on the ocean floor. Until now, mankind put carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, unbalanced the equilibrium and warming started.  Warming would increase until forests and oceans absorb the excess carbon dioxide, and then a new (and higher) equilibrium temperature is formed. Now, it is possible that the warming caused by man could cause more warming caused by nature. This process may become self-sustaining and “run away” as follows. Assume man caused warming and the glaciers and permafrost melt. If mankind stops, the glacier melting reduces reflection, and the permafrost melting generates decaying vegetation, which generates carbon dioxide and methane which overwhelms the natural absorption process and greenhouse gasses build up until the permafrost vegetation is gone.

Clearly mankind is overwhelming this process, because the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere is growing rapidly. Part of this increase is due to mankind cutting the forests, but the greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels are thought to be the most important contributor. In the future, if mankind reduces his carbon dioxide contribution enough to drop below the natural absorption capability, there will be at least two warming processes that still grow-the loss of the reflectivity of ice at the poles, and the carbon dioxide and methane production by decomposing permafrost vegetation. If the effect of these processes rises above that of the natural absorption processes, the warming trend will continue without mankind’s contribution until the ice is gone, the permafrost is gone, and a new equilibrium is formed. This automatic temperature increase is called runaway warming. The only way to stop runaway warming is to provide a new means of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

 

The Evidence

The evidence shows the following trends.

O Some areas show a warming trend and some show cooling. A computer model is required to interpret the data because climate zones are shifting as well as warming. Generally, however, warming trends seem to dominate as shown by the series of temperature records seen around the earth recently.

O The glaciers and ice caps are melting.

O The melted ice does appear to be raising the mean sea level; although this measurement is more controversial. The mean sea level appears different at different earth positions due to the effect of currents and the shape of the ocean bottom, so a computer model is needed to interpret the data. The aquifers near the ocean are becoming saltier, however.

O The climate zones are moving north in the northern hemisphere (and south in the southern hemisphere). This results in desertification in some productive agricultural areas and water logging in others.

O The oceans are warming and spreading, resulting in the death of some reefs and cypress forests.

O Hurricanes appear to be increasing in strength.

O Aerosols in the earth’s atmosphere are changing, but they are hard to measure. New, more accurate measuring devices are just coming on line.

O The permafrost is melting, especially in northern Canada and Siberia.

Several computer programs that integrate these measurements exist and they are being tested. They show a climate-warming trend, but the earth does not appear to have reached runaway. The accuracy of these programs is not yet completely confirmed with data, but this accuracy is improving.

 

Is Action Required?

Many still do not believe in climate warming. A counter theory has been proposed. This theory says that the warming trend that we observe is due to changes in solar radiation level and earth rotation axis wobble. Since there is nothing we can do about these causes, these critics propose that we do nothing that would upset the world economy, and wait to see what happens. This procedure could be very dangerous, as we shall see.

Suppose nothing is done, but global warming theory is correct. Then the following long-term bad effects are likely.

O The glaciers are part of the earth’s fresh water storage system that man uses extensively. If they disappear, the rivers will tend to flood in the winter and spring and dry up in the summer, which is bad for man.

O The ice shelves in the Arctic and Antarctic are excellent fish food producers and if they disappear, this food source for fish may disappear along with the fish they feed.

O If the mean sea level rises to its maximum, some of the most important and valuable seacoast real estate in the world will be submerged, and coastal aquifers will become salty.

O If climate zones move north (and south), significant amounts of productive agricultural land will be lost.

O If the oceans warm to the maximum, a large portion of the earth’s reefs will die, and many cypress forests will be damaged. This will damage the associated fish breeding grounds. These problems will cause the reduction of an important food source.

O The permafrost will continue to melt and emit carbon dioxide and methane.

. The above effects have, for the most part, a limited bad impact on the earth’s livability. However, two impacts of this cascade of events, the loss of reflective ice and the melting and decay of the permafrost, may cause runaway warming. Inaction would lock in all these bad effects and open us to many future problems that are even worse. If runaway is possible and something can be done, action now is absolutely imperative.

 

The Solution

A practical and economically positive solution may be possible without damaging the global economic system. This consists of an energy generating system that can reduce carbon dioxide emission and sequester the remainder. Specifically:

O Conservation, which would consist of substituting for fossil fuel power plants:

–         Nuclear power plants where economical and safe

–         Deep thermal well power plants where economical (see Aquater2050 Paper No. 2)

–         Ocean based wind and wave generators and solar cells to provide both base load energy and portable fuels. (see Aquater2050 Paper No 2 and Aquater2050.com)

–         Electrical cars with solar cells to extend range.

–         Alcohol and oil from waste wood, algae and kelp for portable power plant operations such as aircraft, trains, cars and trucks.

O Sequestering the carbon dioxide, which would consist of putting the carbon dioxide in the:

–         Deep rock formations by use of deep thermal wells.

–         Deep oceans by freezing the carbon dioxide and sinking it below the thermo cline. (see Aquater2050 Paper No. 2 and 2050Aquater 2050.com). This is equivalent to increasing the sequestering of carbon dioxide in limestone by plankton.

–         Deep oceans by increasing the growth of plankton by fertilizing the surface of the ocean with soluble iron.

O An additional benefit of the carbon dioxide freezing and sequestering technique is that the vessels used to harvest energy and freeze the carbon dioxide can also be used to mix the upper layers of the ocean in hurricane zones. This cools the surface layers and reduces the force of any hurricanes that might develop. Furthermore, this surface cooling technique can be used to control weather in Australia and southwestern US by cooling the surface layers of the central Pacific.

There is a major problem with these methods, however. Both the deep thermal well and the ocean based wind and wave generators are being developed by small companies that, under normal development procedures, would not be expected to have a large impact for 30 years, and would not be expected to start reversing the warming trend for 40 to 50 years. Now the ice caps and the permafrost layers are expected to melt in 15 to 25 years. Thus we may be in a state of runaway global warming before the solution can come on line. Timing may be important.

 

Timing and the Overall Capability

Only the ocean based wind and wave vessels (called SEMAN) have the overall capability to cover the energy need and come on line with any significant impact within twenty years. The oceans have the capability of supporting roughly 200 million SEMAN in high-energy areas (wind speed >15 knot). This number of SEMAN can sequester all of the carbon dioxide generated by fossil fuels currently and cover the energy needed to replace fossil fuel generators as time goes on. In addition, these SEMAN can be put on the ocean rapidly because the developer, (Aquater2050 LLC), is using a different development procedure and business model than is normal for an energy company. Development consists of building and testing one vessel (it is almost complete), capable of immediately making a profit. Thus, people with the funds can individually build and operate their own SEMAN using a separate contractor. Aquater2050 LLC also has an Internet site operating to aid in this task. There are charges for this aid. Part of the money received from this site is put into a fund to supply building materials and aid for those who don’t have money of their own to build a vessel.  So the unemployed can also build and operate vessels. Use of this two-pronged approach ensures that there will be more than one construction base operating. Thus rapid production increase is possible. Still, it is not expected that the SEMAN will completely take over the energy production of the world, but it is important to know that it can provide what is needed.

Nuclear plants have the required capability, but the safety issue is slowing plant construction. Eventually, however, nuclear plants do have this capability now, and so will continue to provide a significant fraction of the earth’s energy requirement.

Deep thermal wells have the required capability, but it will take a long time to drill a significant number of wells and ramp up to a large output. It is expected that eventually, wells will provide a significant fraction of the earth’s energy requirement, and also be able to sequester carbon dioxide in the bedrock.

Construction Capability

Since an enormous amount of construction is required to build 200 million SEMAN, it is proper to ask if the capability exists to do this construction and if the materials are available. SEMAN construction requires much the same skills as house construction and uses much the same materials (wood, glue, steel and aluminum fittings, carpet, and fabrics). In fact, the primary material used, birch plywood, comes from birch trees common in northern Russia, Finland and northeast US. The SEMAN is in fact a home for a family of four with some extra electrical additions (primarily electric generators), so either a home or a SEMAN would have to be built for each new family as population increases. This situation contrasts with other green energy producers such as solar cells. Solar cells have a serious production limit caused by a shortage of both worker skills and refined solar cell materials, and could not ramp up into the dominant energy producer in a timely fashion. Thus no new skills or materials are required for SEMAN construction and building 200 million SEMAN is roughly the same as building 200 million homes that would have to be built anyway except for the electrical equipment. On a worldwide basis, 200 million homes over 40 years is not an impossible job.

Nuclear plants can be constructed to cover world energy requirements since they have been and are being constructed now. The only problem is satisfying each nation’s regulations, which currently takes about ten years.

 

Conclusion

The possibility of climate change due to carbon dioxide emission is controversial. Many are not convinced that it exists. It cannot be ignored, however. If it is ignored, there is a possibility that it will turn into runaway global warming because of the thawing and decay of permafrost vegetation, and the loss of the reflective ice caps.

There are steps that can be taken, however, that have a high probability of success, and will have a positive effect of the economy (see ap3 New Jobs for the Coming Generation). First, nuclear plant construction should be supported wherever safety can be achieved as a replacement for fossil fuel plants.

Deep thermal well generator development and construction should also be supported as a replacement for fixed fossil fuel plants for base electrical load.

Finally, ocean based wind and wave generator development should be supported wherever possible as a replacement for fixed and mobile fossil fuel plants. These generators can achieve both the low cost, the timely entry into the market, the ability to sequester carbon dioxide, and the generation capacity necessary to replace fossil fuels and avoid runaway global warming.

The technology and the prototype vessel that can be used to harvest energy and sequester carbon dioxide is described in detail on Aquater2050.com

Note

More details and all references for this paper are given on Aquater2050.com