The Problem
The evidence is strong that man is changing the environment (see AP1.1 this site). The increases in average temperature, strength of storms and the number of severe weather patterns observed provide evidence of these changes. In addition, our resources are being used up at an alarming rate. Since our civilization has grown up with the old environmental conditions and weather patterns, serious changes in them will damage the ability of our civilization to function. For example, water collection, purification and distribution has been disrupted. Food production systems have been damaged. Man’s living spaces (residences, cities and towns) have been damaged. Energy production, distribution and utilization have been disrupted. A certain amount of disruption is expected and can be tolerated, but as the changes in environment become more frequent, serious and widespread, civilization’s ability to compensate will be overwhelmed, and the accumulated damage will be irreversible, and the standard of living will degrade. Clearly, our civilization will be in serious trouble if the environmental changes are not halted and then reversed.
The prior two decades has shown that these facts are not sufficient to cause the large change in the behavior patterns needed to halt this damaging process. It is not surprising that large-scale changes in the behavior patterns of people are difficult if not impossible to accomplish because of four factors.
- A portion of the population will deny the degradation is happening regardless of the evidence, and feel justified because the changes occur slowly with occasional reversions into the prior condition due to statistical effects.
- A portion of the population will refuse to ”lower their standard of living” or “lose their job” for the benefit of future generations saying “that is their problem to be solved in their time”, and that the degradation is slow enough that “I expect to be dead before the effect is serious enough to impact me”.
- A portion of the population will continue to use destructive behavior patterns because they have no choice since the destructive pattern is the only way they have to make a living.
- The remaining portion of the population that is willing to take action now is not large enough to halt and reverse the process of degradation.
Thus we seem to be left with the following situation. We must wait until the environmental situation is serious enough that the majority of the population is willing to sacrifice their standard of living to take action. If, as appears probable (see AP1.1), the environment has moved into an irreversible condition by that time, the earth will make the changes necessary to obtain a new state of equilibrium, and the population will be reduced by starvation, disease and war over resources to the level that the earth can sustain over the long term.
We are not the only civilization in the earth’s history to have reached this point in its progression, however when the prior civilizations reached a crisis point, they failed to overcome the difficulty and died. Consider the following examples.
- The Neolithic culture that flourished in what is now the Sahara desert depended for food and water on a set of fresh water lakes that existed there prior to ~8,000 BC. Due to wobble in the earth’s axis of rotation, the rain patterns changed, and the lakes dried up, so the culture died, and the population dwindled and spread out into other areas within and around the Sahara.
- The Megalithic culture of Gobekli Teppi in what is now Turkey that flourished ~8,000 BC died out and left their stone monuments covered with sand and soil. The most likely reason for their disappearance is a natural catastrophe-probably a climate change that altered the rainfall pattern in the area and made it uninhabitable.
- The cultures that flourished in Tel Hamilcar and Tel Caramel of southeast Turkey ~4,000 BC were destroyed in a war with another contemporary culture-perhaps the city of Ur in the southern part of Mesopotamia. The fight may have been over the limited resources in Mesopotamia.
- A culture that flourished on the Black Sea in what is now called Farna, Bulgaria at ~4,500 BC disappeared at ~4,200 BC apparently due to climate change.
- A culture called Ubar that flourished before ~3,000 BC in what is now the empty quarter of southeast Arabia disappeared when the aquifers that were their principal water source dried up and collapsed.
- The Mayas of southern Mexico and Guatemala appear to have expanded their population and resource utilization to the point that the land could no longer support them by ~1,400 to 1,500 AD, and then degraded into a state of internal warfare over resources that lasted until the population was sufficiently reduced and spread out that the land could again support them. Note that the level of their civilization was drastically reduced by then.
- The Anasazi that flourished in what is now southwest US disappeared after a century long drought made it impossible to continue living in that area.
This pattern of culture growth until resource limits are reached followed by a culture collapse seems to have been standard for most civilizations and it has continued in that pattern until now. Currently, these separate civilizations have begun to merge into the one super civilization that covers the whole earth. Now, this super civilization is expanding to the edge of the ability of earth’s resources to support it, and so the super civilization is changing and perhaps destroying earth’s environment as well (see AP1.1). If the current pattern is allowed to continue, the super civilization will fall into a cycle of starvation, disease and war until it collapses, and the population of earth is reduced and spread out enough so that the earth can support it again. The more the earth’s environment is damaged, the smaller the population it can support.
This paper is written to show that a destruction of our environment and a resulting decay and perhaps loss of our civilization is not inevitable. We currently have access to technologies that are far beyond those available to prior civilizations. Using these new technologies, and some of the old ones, it appears possible to coax our world into a new state of long-term stability and save our civilization. This does not mean that the earth can be returned to the state it had before man began farming and industrializing. Man’s needs, his attitude, and his capability preclude that. How the environment can be partially protected and man’s needs still supplied (Practical Environmental Protection) are the subject of this paper. It should be noted that the solution to these problems proposed here also provides a safe haven for some as our civilization begins to break down, and thus a springboard from which to operate as we begin to repair the damage caused by prior bad practices.
The Solution
It is expected that by 2050 the population will be nearing its peak, and then it will fall to its current level and flatten out. If this is true, what is needed is an environmental protection procedure that gets the earth and mankind through this transition period, and then establishes a stable, quasi-equilibrium condition for the environment, and a stable, sustainable condition for the work allocation and the resource consumption of mankind.
There are four requirements for this procedure.
- The carbon dioxide level of the atmosphere must be stabilized-probably at a level lower than current-or the climate-warming trend will continue along with its attendant environmental problems.
- At least one member of each family must have access to work in order to make a living for the family.
- All families must have access to food, water, shelter and energy.
- The consumption of resources from the earth and sun must be at or below the generation level of those resources.
In working out this procedure, it became obvious that the current means of providing these items is inadequate, so a new source will be necessary for each one. After considerable research and development, a way has been found to provide each of these items: A living platform was developed capable of giving ways of making a living. In contrast to high tech that provides amusement and ways to replace humans in the work force, this platform provides work and ways to expand the number of humans in the work force. This platform, the SEMAN (see AP1.0 on this site), consists of a seagoing vessel that provides a means of living comfortably on the ocean. This vessel allows one to make fresh water, grow food and harvest energy for sale on land-all the things necessary to provide a living for humans. The SEMAN can travel to any place near the ocean for free, and operators can enjoy all the electronic entertainment a land dweller enjoys. These SEMAN can travel in groups (pods) to allow contact with other people. Each SEMAN can support four people without requiring supplies from the land. The ocean provides enough high-energy space (wind speed >15 KN) to ensure profitable operation for 200 million SEMAN, which in turn requires 550 million operators and associates (see AP2.4). In addition to this, the SEMAN can provide a large amount of electrical energy that can be used to freeze, package and sink carbon dioxide to the sea floor and thus sequester it from the atmosphere. This energy can also be used to produce oil stock for use in cars, trucks and aircraft on the land, as well as nitrogen fertilizer for use on crops on the land the land.
In AP2.4, it is shown that 200 million SEMAN are enough to sequester enough carbon dioxide and provide the jobs, resources (especially fertilizer), energy, water, and food necessary to obtain a nearly sustainable condition for our civilization.
There will still be a few unsustainable problems nagging our civilization even if the SEMAN solution is implemented. These are addressed in AP3.0 through AP3.5.
Summary and Conclusions
The evidence is strong that man is changing the environment (see AP1.1 this site). The increases in average temperature, strength of storms and the number of severe weather patterns observed provide evidence of these changes. Since our civilization has grown up with the old environmental conditions and weather patterns, serious changes in them will damage the ability of our civilization to function. . In addition, our resources are being used up at an alarming rate. This pattern of culture growth until resource limits are reached followed by a culture collapse seems to have been standard for most civilizations and it has continued in that pattern until now. This pattern need not continue, however.
In order to address this problem, a living platform was developed capable of giving ways of making and sustaining a living. This platform, the SEMAN (see AP1.0 on this site), consists of a seagoing vessel that provides a means of living comfortably on the ocean. This vessel allows one to make fresh water, grow food and harvest energy for sale on land-all the things necessary to provide a living for humans. In addition, it can sequester carbon dioxide, and harvest energy from the ocean for sale on the land.
Thus it appears possible to halt the destruction of our environment and a resulting decay and perhaps loss of our civilization. We currently have access to technologies (especially the SEMAN), that are far beyond those available to prior civilizations. Using these new technologies, and some of the old ones, it appears possible to coax our world into a new state of long-term stability and save our civilization.