Cornered–

Decisions made by the twentieth century generation have pushed the twenty-first century generation into a difficult and uncomfortable corner. The twentieth century generation was unaware of the problems they were creating, but they created them nonetheless. Let us consider the corner the people of the twenty-first generation is in.

They are running out of the energy they use the most (liquid fossil fuels-oil). We have coal, but its use is much more harmful to the environment. We have natural gas, but it is harder to store, and its end is also in sight. (See ap2 ENERGY SCARCITY AND NEW OPTIONS-January, this site).
They are facing a serious and perhaps catastrophic change in their environment due to Global Warming. (See ap1 AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE-January, this site).
They are facing a serious and worsening loss of jobs. (See ap3, NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION- January, this site).
They are facing a drastic revision or eventual collapse of the current retirement systems-including Social Security (See ap 4 THE GRADUAL USING UP OF OUR RETIREMENT FUNDS-April, this site).

These problems are made more difficult by the fact that a cure for any one of these problems will worsen the others-thus putting the modern generation in an uncomfortable corner. Let us investigate these problems in more detail, and see the conflicts. Then, let us see if there is a way for this modern generation to escape capture in this corner.

The production of liquid fossil fuels is topping out, but the demand is increasing, so the cost of these fuels is increasing (ap2). Natural gas is not currently being used for transportation because it is more difficult to store than liquid fuels. Both liquid and gaseous fossil fuels still pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and increase global warming. Coal, which generates many jobs, pumps far more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than liquid or gaseous fuels. Sadly, coal, which is plentiful and creates jobs, could be used to make liquid and gaseous fuels and relieve the shortage of liquid fuels. The only energy sources that would not increase global warming are nuclear, solar and deep thermal wells. Nuclear has safety issues, and solar and deep thermal wells are expensive and so would increase the cost of energy, siphon more money into energy, and so decrease the demand for jobs in other areas of the economy.

Global warming is extremely serious and possibly catastrophic (ap1). Man’s use of fossil fuels has increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and so increased the earth’s infrared radiation captured in the atmosphere. This heat capture has upset the earth’s heat balance and caused Global Warming. This warming, initiated by mankind, has caused the earth’s ice caps and glaciers to start melting. Then solar reflection from the ice is reduced, and the solar radiation absorbed by the earth is increased, so the average temperature of the earth is increased. This warming has also started to melt the permafrost in the arctic. When permafrost melts, it decays, and emits carbon dioxide and methane, which increases the heat captured in the atmosphere and so increases Global Warming. When this cycle progresses far enough, it becomes self-perpetuating, and can lead to runaway warming, where the warming continues regardless of man’s contribution. If the warming is sufficient, the temperature difference in the ocean between the equator and the poles goes down, the ice melt water reduces ocean salinity and the ocean circulation shuts down (the gulf stream and other ocean streams stop flowing). Ocean circulation is the primary means for pumping heat from the equator to the poles, for regulating weather patterns and for pumping nutrients from the deep ocean to the surface where plankton and fish can use them, and so the loss of circulation will change fish production, farm production and weather patterns around the world which will also reduce jobs. These changes will also start killing off species, including those mankind depends on. Finally, increased temperature tends to make people stay home and further reduces economic activity and so decreases the jobs available.

Serious job loss due to automation has been waiting in the wings for many years (see ap3, 3A and 3B-January and February, this site). Little by little, automation has been replacing people in the jobs needed to supply mankind with the goods and services needed for a good life. Lately, this trend has been accelerating because of the increasing capability of computers and robots. It has been estimated (see ap3B-February, this site) that if the world population reaches 8 billion by 2050, there will be a need for 723 million jobs from an entirely new industry at that time. This assumes that Global Warming is overcome by then. The number of jobs required will be greater if the problem of Global Warming is not solved because damage to natural resources, recreational resources and food production systems will reduce the demand for jobs in these other areas of the economy.

The current retirement systems (including Social Security) are heading toward bankruptcy because there are not enough workers in the younger generation to support the retired people in the older generation. Further, any disruption in the existing retirement systems would force a portion of the retired people or those who would like to retire back into the work force and increase the need for new jobs.

–But Not Captured.

The Low-tech Solution

In the twentieth century, the solution to mankind’s problems clearly lay in the direction of:

Antibiotic medicine (to extend life).
New chemistry (for synthetic fertilizer and artificial organic compounds).
New physics (for cheap electrical energy using nuclear fission).
Fossil fuels-especially oil (for convenient, portable energy).
Automation of farming and industrial production (to improve working conditions and reduce the cost of goods).
New economic intervention by government to tame the business cycle (by use of Keynesian style government spending in bad times) and provide retirement for older citizens (using Social Security style pensions).

These breakthroughs allowed mankind to move away from a short life of low pay, drudgework and illness into a longer life of moderate pay, improved but boring work and improved health. But, it has long been clear that the life style and economy that resulted was unstable and the advantages mankind enjoyed had limitations and a cost. Our health was blighted by cancer and heart disease; the new chemistry brings dangerous chemical residuals and pollution with it; nuclear fission comes with dangerous radioactivity; the liquid and gaseous fossil fuel production is gradually peaking out while demand is not, which increases cost and causes global warming; automation (in the form of computers and robots) is going beyond its goal of improving working conditions and efficiency and is putting men and women out of work; the economy is still lashed by business oscillations worsened by high tech and Global Warming; and Social Security is becoming unaffordable for the working population.

Now the next level of advanced technology is solving the first three of these problems, but not the last three. A cure for cancer and heart disease is underway; waste treatment can eliminate chemical residuals and pollution; and new reactor designs can overcome the safety and radioactivity problems of fission reactors (see ap1, ap2, and ap3-January and February, this site). However, it is apparent from the increase in fossil fuel prices and Global Warming that fossil fuels are becoming scarce, and are damaging the economy and the environment. More high tech in the workplace will make unemployment worse by eliminating jobs and concentrating the factors of supply and production in the hands of the few that can afford to invest and so squeezing the middle and working class out of work into the ranks of the poor. The non-investors that used to be able to sell their work for a good living wage are gradually being eliminated from the production-consumption cycle. This is bad for two reasons. First, the workers will have no way to make a living, and second, the rich will have no one to sell the products of their companies to. This problem becomes manifest in the existence of a larger and larger group of people that have no permanent employment. They scramble from one temporary job to another and try to stay solvent. In between times, they collect unemployment insurance or slip into the ranks of the disabled and collect disability insurance. As far as the business cycle is concerned, the last recession showed the limitations of the government in controlling its oscillations. Also, the government can no longer afford to support retirement because the population distribution is narrow and vertical rather than broad and pyramidal in form. Thus there are not enough people in the lower, working cohort to support those in the upper, retired or disabled cohort. Clearly these last three problems work against each other in such a way as to make a solution for any one of them extremely difficult. It is time to try the low-tech solution

A low-tech solution uses production and operation technology that can be understood, worked on and owned by ordinary workers. This bypasses the capital intensive, high-tech automation squeeze against middle and working class workers. For example, wood construction is low-tech in both manufacture and repair, but metal constructions requires sophisticated techniques to mine, refine, shape and connect the metals. Also, wood is renewable and metal is not. Further, low-tech operations are done by hand rather than by feedback control sensors and computer-controlled actuators. Clearly there will be portions of our economy that will require high-tech products, but these products can be relegated to add-on work applications or Work Apps that are not part of the basic operating structure or Operating Module, and can be used or not according to operator tastes and Work App profitability. What is needed, then, is a low tech Operating Module for living and for working, that can be owned by the middle and working class and thus spreads a portion of the ownership of the factors of production and supply among the workers. If the workers own these Modules, they can provide food and shelter in bad economic times when profitability disappears, and gives retirement support when workers grow older. These Modules must be simple enough to build, repair and use (low tech enough) that ordinary workers can build and use them to make a living. This solution could insure the survival of the middle and working classes in a recession, insure that a recession will never get so deep as to risk the collapse of the whole economy and provide an alternative means of retirement to relieve the stress of social security on the working people. If this Module could also provide green energy, it would provide an answer to all three of these apparently separate and seemingly intractable problems.

Two examples of these Modules have been proposed.

A family buys an ocean going vessel- a SEMAN- (or Seagoing Energy Module with Automatic Navigation-stabilization, see ap3-this site, March) that purifies its own water, grows its own food, and harvests green energy from wind, waves and sun for sale on the land to pay the mortgage and other expenses on the vessel. The vessel is essentially a low-tech sailing vessel that can be built and operated by middle and working class workers. Add-on modules can be used to generate electricity from wind, waves and sun, purify water, and navigate and stabilize the vessel. This combination constitutes the Operating Module. Other Work Apps can be added to sequester carbon dioxide, convert food or other waste to crude oil and natural gas, or provide other profit center applications for the energy harvested. The ocean has room for 200 million such vessels (400 million low tech jobs) in high-energy (wind speed >15 KN) areas of the ocean. These jobs can help solve the world unemployment problem. In addition, it sequesters carbon dioxide on the bottom of the ocean to help solve the Global Warming problem. Finally, it provides an alternate means of retirement to relieve the stress of Social Security on the government (see ap 4-this site, April).
A family buys a Harbor Support Module (HSM) for the above-mentioned SEMAN (See ap3A-this site-March) that provides SEMAN construction, land support and a port to trade for the energy harvested. Operating SEMAN would require about 150 million workers to accomplish such a task. These units would be scattered along the edge of the ocean, to provide water, food and energy sale support as well as a profitable living for the owners. Again, Work Apps can be added by the HSM to use the energy purchased from the SEMAN to make energy intensive products for sale inland. In addition, the HSM would provide an alternate means of retirement

Other such Modules can be designed with the primary feature that they provide water, food, shelter and energy for the purchaser as long as the family can count on a basic income from the module. Then Work App product sales or temporary or part time jobs need only supply luxury goods, and the owner’s living is not at risk when recession or automation strikes. For the SEMAN, the basic income comes from energy sold on the land. For the HSU’s buying and then distributing SEMAN energy on the land at a profit provides a basic income. Note that the owner must carry unemployment insurance that covers the mortgage payment if this income fails for any reason. By the time the owner reaches retirement age, he/she will own the SEMAN or HSU, and retirement income can come from continued operation of these units or from renting them out.

Clearly, the whole world is not going to move into a SEMAN or an HSM as a long-term solution to this group of problems. If successful (see ap3B), there will be a gradual shift out of the standard job sectors as they are automated out of existence and into these modules. Otherwise, surplused employees will move into chronic unemployment, welfare or disability unless an entirely new type of employment and lifestyle becomes available. This is happening now. After each recession, a certain number of jobs disappear completely. One might ask if the solution outlined above were available, would these surplused employees be willing to move into a completely new line of work and lifestyle even if:

Another energy source-say nuclear energy-became available.
Another means of sequestering carbon dioxide-say deep thermal wells-became available.
Another means of saving Social Security-say delaying entry into retirement-became available.

The necessity of making a living would be expected to force many people to choose this new lifestyle since automation will keep the standard job sectors from offering much employment. Some may just see it as an adventure to be enjoyed. In any case, estimates show that only about 6.9% of the population (550 million) need to choose this lifestyle to solve the four problems indicated above. Note that by chance, this percentage is only a little less than the percentage of employees estimated to be surplused due automation by 2050. Thus a strong movement of people into this new sector of the economy appears to be likely.

Conclusions

The younger generation is beset by four major, conflicting problems

They are running out of the energy they use the most (liquid fossil fuels-oil). We have coal, but its use is much more harmful to the environment. We have natural gas, but it is harder to store, and its end is also in sight. (See ap2 ENERGY SCARCITY AND NEW OPTIONS-January, this site).
They are facing a serious and perhaps catastrophic change in their environment due to Global Warming. (See ap1 AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE-January, this site).
They are facing a serious and worsening loss of jobs. (See ap3, NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION- January, this site).
They are facing a drastic revision or eventual collapse of the current retirement systems-including Social Security (See ap 4 THE GRADUAL USING UP OF OUR RETIREMENT FUNDS-April, this site).

These problems are made more difficult by the fact that a cure for any one of these problems will worsen the others-thus putting the modern generation in an uncomfortable corner.

These problems work against each other in such a way as to make a continued use of high tech solutions for each of them counter productive for the rest. It is time to try a low-tech solution to keep this younger generation from being captured. A low-tech solution uses production and operation technology that can be understood, worked on and owned by ordinary workers. This bypasses the capital intensive, high-tech automation operation that works against middle and working class workers. What is needed, then, is a low tech Operating Module for living and for working, that can be owned by the middle and working class and thus spreads a portion of the ownership of the factors of production and supply among the workers. These Operating Modules, can provide food and shelter for living, and a work platform for working. In addition, in bad economic times when work profitability temporarily disappears, the Operating Module maintains support and gives retirement support when workers grow older. These Modules must be simple enough to build, repair and use (low tech enough) that ordinary workers can build and use them to make a living. This solution can insure the survival of the middle and working classes in a recession, insure that a recession will never get so deep as to risk the collapse of the whole economy and provide an alternative means of retirement to relieve the stress of social security on the work force. Such a Module can also be made to provide green energy, so it gives an answer to all four of the above mentioned apparently separate and seemingly intractable problems.

Two primary examples of these Operating Modules have been proposed.

An ocean going vessel- a SEMAN- (or Seagoing Energy Module with Automatic Navigation-stabilization, see ap3-this site, March) that purifies its own water, grows its own food, and harvests green energy from wind, waves and sun for sale on the land to pay the mortgage and other expenses for the vessel. The vessel is essentially a low-tech sailing vessel that can be built and operated by middle and working class workers. Add-on units can be purchased and used to generate electricity from wind, waves and sun, purify water, and navigate and stabilize the vessel. This combination constitutes the Operating Module. Other Work Apps can be added to sequester carbon dioxide, make fertilizer, convert food or other waste to crude oil and natural gas, or provide other profit center applications for the energy harvested. The ocean has room for ~200 million such vessels (400 million low tech jobs) in high-energy (wind speed >15 KN) areas of the ocean. These jobs can help solve the world unemployment problem. In addition, it sequesters carbon dioxide on the bottom of the ocean to help solve the Global Warming problem. Finally, it provides an alternate means of retirement to relieve the stress of Social Security on the government (see ap4-this site, April).
Harbor Support Module (HSM) for the above-mentioned SEMAN (See ap3A-this site-March) that provides SEMAN construction, land support and a port to trade for the energy harvested. Operating SEMAN would require about 150 million workers to accomplish such a task. These units would be scattered along the edge of the ocean, to provide quick access to water, food and energy sale support as well as a profitable living for the owners. Again, Work Apps can be added by the HSM to use the energy purchased from the SEMAN to make energy intensive products for sale inland. In addition, the HSM would provide an alternate means of retirement

Notes.

The prototype SEMAN is about 90% complete. To see progress on the prototype, click on “SEMAN Prototype Update” on the home page of this site.
To donate to help complete this prototype, click on “Add To Cart” on the home page.