The problem

We are just beginning to understand enough about weather and what controls it to ask if we can guide its trends. The path of travel and precise timing of single storms is not predictable and so not controllable, but the average weather trends and storm strength may be. For example, one cannot start, direct and limit one storm in a specific location, but one may be able to reduce the average strength of hurricanes (or typhoons) in a general area, or control the average amount of continental rainfall in the same area. In order to describe what might be done in weather control, I will consider the northern part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as my main example.

 

The ENSO oscillation operates around the equator in the Pacific. When conditions are neutral, the prevailing wind comes from the continents in the east, moves west pushed by the solar warm spot moving with the earth’s rotation, and drags and thins the Eastern surface layer of the ocean and carries it west. The surface layer is limited by the thermocline, which is a zone of water that cools rapidly as the depth increases. When this condition settles and becomes stable, the eastern Pacific shows a cool surface layer caused by the upwelling of cool, deep waters from beneath the thermocline, and this makes the air cool and dry above it. In the western Pacific, a thick, warm surface layer builds up above the thermocline as the water moves across the Pacific in the sun, and this makes the air warm and moist above it. Thus a circulation cell is formed in which the western warm, moist (and thus light) air rises until it cools at high altitudes and is transported east, and then sinks over the eastern, cool surface layer mentioned above, reinforces it with cool air, and turns west. The eastern Pacific is then suitable for the formation of thunderstorms that can be bent around by the trade winds into circular form and become typhoons (Pacific hurricanes). These typhoons can then are carried pole ward by the trade winds, and pushed into south China or the Philippians. In contrast, the western edge of North and South America remain cool and dry up as far as northern California and down to mid Chile and thus cause the mildly dry conditions noted in southwest US and Mexico Peru and northwest Chile. If the warm, thick layer moves east, the oscillation shifts into the El Nino condition where the wind falls off, the cool, surface layer close to South America disappears, and the thunderstorms appear mid-ocean. The Typhoons that form are pushed toward Japan or Guam or east of these areas. The western coast of North and South America become warm and moist and thunderstorms form and torrential rains fall on some parts of the west coast. Also, the winters in southwest US become wetter. If the warm, thick layer moves west, the oscillation shifts into the La Nina condition, the wind and the cool surface layer along with the atmospheric circulation cell moves west along with the attendant thunderstorms and Australia, Indonesia and the Philippians experiences torrential rains, thunderstorms and typhoons (cyclones in India) appear further west, and turn toward Indonesia and India. The western edge of North and South America becomes very dry and drought conditions result. Southwest US has dryer winters. Note that this same type of oscillation occurs in other places in the world. In the Atlantic, it results in a similar atmospheric circulation cell and a series of hurricanes moving into the Caribbean.

 

The reader will see that there may be an opportunity to cool the surface of the ocean with water from below the thermocline and use it to move the circulation cell. If enough movement is achieved, a change in the oscillation state occurs. By cooling the surface water at least 0.5 deg C and perhaps as much as 3 deg C in a new position along the equator it may be possible to shift the cool spot and move the atmospheric circulation cell to a different place. In addition, it may be possible to reduce the power or change the direction of any typhoons formed by cooling uniformly in the center of them, or preferentially on one side of them. For example, if the existing condition is neutral, cooling the ocean on the eastern edge of the western cool spot would be expected to cause a high pressure zone above the cool water and increase the wind blowing to the west from this new point. This would then thin the water layer there and bring the cool, deep water to the surface, and shift the hot, moist water west and cause the oscillation to become more like La Nina. Note that it may be possible to control the average rainfall on the western edge of North and South America as well as Australia and India by using these same methods.

 

Consider the possibility of a complete weather control system that controls the cool spot position by the above methods. For example, a steady movement of the cool spot to the west may regulate the rainfall on the western edge of North and South America and also keep typhoons from completely forming in a given spot. Steady movement will certainly reduce the amount of flooding that results from a certain position of the ocean warm spot. Cooling the surface layers can certainly reduce the power of a storm if the cooling is accomplished symmetrically in its eye. Asymmetrical cooling may also make typhoon steering possible. Of course, considerable experimentation will be required to obtain the correct results if, indeed, the correct results can be obtained. It is clear, however, that an atmospheric circulation cell with resultant ocean cool and warm spots is a stable condition because they occur now, so it can be expected that a cool spot shift, if large enough and maintained long enough, should shift the circulation cell incrementally into a new position that will reinforce itself. The only question is how much change in the cool spot size and temperature is required to achieve a shift.

 

The potential for controlling weather has been noticed before, but there has never been a practical means of pumping water from below the thermocline to a large area of the surface of the ocean before. Now there is-see “The Solution” below.

 

The Evidence

Reliable measurements have been made that support the theories underlying the examples given above. Correlation between the sea surface temperatures and high and low-pressure zones and the stability of the ENSO states have been measured. However, controlling the atmospheric circulation and thus the ENSO state by controlling the sea surface temperature near the cold spot may not be so easy. The correlation between sea surface temperature and typhoon wind strength has also been measured, but controlling the typhoon wind strength by controlling the sea surface temperature may again not be so easy. Finally, typhoon steering by asymmetrical cooling has been indirectly noticed, but asymmetrical cooling may not give predictable control of the typhoon direction of travel.

 

Is Action Required?

It is important to note that with the onset of Global Warming, Southwestern US and certain parts of Australia are expected to become dryer. A drying trend has already been experienced in other areas. Also, hurricanes and typhoons are expected to become more severe. Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina are notable in this trend. In general, weather conditions are expected to become more extreme as time goes on. Thus the need for this kind of weather control may become more urgent as global warming progresses.

 

The Solution

In order accomplish this kind of climate control; we must work out an economical means of pumping the cool water from below the surface of the ocean and provide a group of vessels well positioned to use this means. Simple calculations have been performed which give the following results. The surface temperature change of interest is expected to be 0.5 to 3 deg C, and the area of interest is a few hundreds to a few thousands of square miles. A few hundred square miles is thought to be significant in hurricane or typhoon control. Changing the state of the atmospheric oscillation is expected to require a few thousand square miles. The depth needed to get a few degrees change of water temperature is 10 to 100 meters depending on how close one is to the cold spot. The closer one is, the shallower the thermocline is. The amount of cool water needed to cool the ocean surface is expected to be 0.1 to 0.5 inches. If we wish to cool a strip of water 200 feet wide to a depth of 0.1 inches, pulling from an ocean depth of 10 meters, a 40KW pump would be required, and about 10KN would be a reasonable speed of progression for the vessel. A strip 10KMI wide (for hurricane control) would require 250 vessels operating near the storm in its early stage. A strip 100KMI wide would require 2500 ships (for ENSO state position changes) operating near the equator during autumn and winter (the critical time).  Renting 250 small vessels for 6 months for hurricane control would require at least $25 million. Renting 2500 small vessels for 6 months to test the impact of surface temperature alteration for areas of a few hundred to a few thousand square miles would cost at least $250 million. In both cases, the chances of success with the first set of 6 Month tests are modest at best. A test program with many tests will be required.

 

On the other hand, a new option will soon be available. Aquater2050 LLC is working on a program to place ocean based wind turbines, wave generators and solar cells on the high-energy areas (wind speed >15kn) of the oceans.  Such vessels would generate 100 to 400KW in electrical energy. One of the better places to find high-energy winds is in the ENSO-trade wind zone currently being discussed. Calculations indicate that roughly 200 million vessels that harvest energy can operate profitably in this and other high-energy areas of the world. In addition; the world has a current need for jobs. Thus it is expected that these vessels will be built and sent to sea rapidly as soon as the prototype is finished. Such vessels are non-polluting and relatively inexpensive ($100,000 for materials, and an equal amount for labor). The harvesting apparatus for all three energy types can be operated on one platform or vessel (called SEMAN) to save capital expense, and each vessel will grow it’s own food and purify its own water. Thus a large number of SEMAN would be available for experiments and the cost of experiments would be small. Using these vessels, a full-scale experiment could be done by the SEMAN owners if the test equipment were provided to them, since the owner would already be in the correct area (equator and trade wind zones) and be generating the necessary energy. Note that the SEMAN automatically provide its own food and most of the equipment needed is normal equipment for a SEMAN.

 

An experiment could start by moving a cold spot to the west. To accomplish this, the SEMAN can pump cold water on the western edge of the cold spot close to the equator. It is expected that the old cold spot would then open to the west, and the eastern edge would close in and become warmer because the cold air from the circulation cell generated by the hot air rising in the west no longer reaches the eastern edge of the old cold spot to cool it. If the cold air from the circulation cell is enough to reinforce the shifted spot, we have, in effect, moved the old cold spot west. The western motion of the cold spot pushes the corresponding warm spot further west because the wind strength is the same and continues to push until the sun and warm sea makes the air rise. Thus the whole circulation cell is moved west. This western push can be continued until the western edge hits a continent, then the western warm spot loses evaporation, which makes the circulation cell slowly die. The dying circulation cell leaves a span of ocean behind it without atmospheric circulation, and it stagnates and warms to become a new pool of warm water pushing up a rising column of warm, moist air. A surface breeze will then form behind it pushed by a solar warm spot moving with the earth’s rotation along with the slightly cooler air above the water that has had less time to warm in the sun. The SEMAN can then travel back behind the slightly cooler water and start cooling the surface of the sea to reinforce atmospheric cell formation and start the new cell moving again. The thermocline is near the sea surface in the cool spot where we operate, so the depth we pump from to get cold water is small and requires little energy. If more area or more cold is required, new lines of adjacent SEMAN can be added in sequence behind the first. If the speed of the western travel of the circulation is rapid enough, there will not normally be time enough for the Correolis forces to curl thunderstorms around into typhoons. Thus the typhoon problem is greatly reduced. For those thunderstorms that do curl around, small groups of SEMAN can penetrate them, cool the sea surface symmetrically to reduce the power of the storm, and cool asymmetrically to steer the storm into safe areas. This can be done in the very early stages of storm development when the winds are not powerful enough to be dangerous for the SEMAN. Note that in almost all parts of this cycle, the SEMAN will be operating in steady, moderate winds that will provide the energy needed to move and control the circulation cell and the incipient typhoons.

 

Timing, Capability and Risk

The prototype SEMAN is about 95% complete. In about 2 years, it should be possible to do a preliminary experiment on the ability of one SEMAN to cool the top part of the surface ocean layer. Later, a full scale experiment of up to 200 ft wide and up to 3 deg C temperature drop can be done to see if a full-scale operational experiment is justified.

 

The SEMAN is being built by Aquater2050 LLC, and the timing of completion is determined by the funds available. A significant portion of the funding comes from sale of memberships in the Aquater2050 club, so the actual completion date is uncertain.

 

The prototype SEMAN is easily capable of supplying the power and mounting the intake and seawater spraying equipment needed. Although early calculations say that this method is feasible, the temperature and area change required to move the cold spot and ser up a new circulation cell may prove to be so large that it may be operationally impractical. It may be necessary to do a computer simulation to determine feasibility and operating parameters before trying a full-scale test, but a single SEMAN test can easily determine the ability of the SEMAN to change sea surface temperature.

Conclusion

It appears feasible to exercise moderate control over typhoon (hurricane) formation and guidance and also control average rainfall in the continental areas surrounding the ENSO oscillation in the tropical Pacific. Low cost experimental tests of the method are possible using ocean-going vessels called SEMAN built by Aquater2050 LLC (see this site-Aquater2050.com-for details). Construction of the prototype SEMAN is nearly complete, and it is expected that an initial feasibility test could be attempted in two to five years. The exact timing of the test will be determined by the prototype completion date, which is in turn determined by the funds available to Aquater2050 LLC by the people that pay $7 to join the Aquater Alliance.