CURE FOR THE BABY BUST

The Problem

On February 2, 2013 Mr. J. V. Last published an article in the Review section of the Wall Street Journal called “America’s Baby Bust” in which he outlined the problems caused by America’s declining birth rate. He notes that the birth rate “…hasn’t been above the replacement rate in a sustained way since the early 1970’s”. He attributes the decline to:

  • Stagnating middle class wages
  • High rate of college attendance which delays marriage and makes children more expensive
  • More career options for women
  • Increased use cohabitation and birth control pills rather than marriage and children

The result of this declining birth rate is that “…societies don’t innovate…they don’t invest aggressively…they cannot sustain social security programs…they cannot project power…” Most will agree with Mr. Last that problems attend a declining birth rate, but he did not address the fundamental underlying reasons for the declining birth rate, or propose a viable solution to those problems. Specifically, what do we do about the following five problems mankind now faces that tell us we need to reduce the birth rate?

  • We are running out of fresh water.
  • We are running out of land to grow food on.
  • We are running out of the kind of energy we use most (oil)
  • The use of fossil fuels, which provides most of our energy, is causing climate warming.
  • We are running out of jobs for the coming generations due to automation with computers and robots,

Thus we need to achieve equilibrium between population, resources and work in order to stabilize the birth rate, and in order to achieve that, we need to overcome this cluster of five problems. Furthermore, even if we are able to achieve this equilibrium and stabilize the population, we must ask if this stability can be maintained, or will it start mankind on a downward spiral? In other words, does mankind have a fundamental need to grow and expand, and if it stops, it must contract and die out?  Here we will address these problems and questions in order to complete the discussion of the issue begun by Mr. Last.

The Near Term Solution

The first step in a cure for the “Baby Bust” is to solve the five problems mentioned above, and achieve equilibrium between population, resources and jobs. We note, first, that women, primarily, determine family size. Further women, for the most part, are practical, and they care about their children. The history of the world shows that if there is a good life available (water, food, energy, a good climate and a good job), along with someone to help with the children (a husband), women will have large (more than two children) families, and the population will increase. If one or more of these factors is missing (most often jobs), women will find ways to limit the number of children they have. It is obvious that the women of the world have recognized that some of the factors needed to allow large families are missing, so the birth rate is falling. In some nations, the missing factors are lack of food and water. In others, the factor is an adverse climate currently getting worse due to climate warming. In most nations, the factor is a lack of jobs.

In many nations, a plentiful supply of cheap, Green energy could produce the missing food and water and overcome the problems of a bad climate. In most nations, a lack of jobs is the most important factor that limits population, and it is starting to be significant in the US as well. An increase in the number of good, middle class jobs is likely to be accompanied by a rise in the birth rate. This combination worked toward this end after WW II and produced the “Baby Boom”.

So what do we do? It appears possible to overcome the five problems mentioned above by colonizing the oceans with a vessel called a SEMAN that can harvest energy from wind, waves and sun, grow its own food, and sequester carbon dioxide to reduce climate warming (see the Aquater2050.com January and February entries-ap1, ap2, ap3, ap3A and ap3B). This option appears capable of producing 400 million sea based and 150 million land based jobs, and replacing fossil fuels as our energy source. Aquater2050 LLC is currently building a SEMAN prototype to advance this end.

Long Term Solution

If an equilibrium population is by its very nature unstable, then mankind must eventually colonize space, or it will die out since its population will soon exceed the earth’s ability to sustain it. This colonization appears possible using a momentum beam booster as described in the Aquater2050.com December entry-ap6. Aquater2050 LLC has started design work on such a booster to advance this end.

Conclusions

Mr. Last has made a good point in calling attention to the dangers of a falling birth rate, but he failed to offer a viable solution for it. In order to achieve the conditions needed for an equilibrium (replacement) birth rate, certain conditions must be met.

  •  We must improve the supply of fresh water.
  • We must increase the amount of land to grow food on.
  • We must find a substitute for the kind of energy we use most (oil)
  • We must find a substitute for fossil fuels, which provides most of our energy, and is causing climate warming.
  • We must find a new source of jobs for the coming generations.

 The most promising means of achieving these goals appears to result from a new type of civilization on the ocean (see Aquater2050.com- the January and February entries ap1, ap2, ap3, ap3A, and ap3B). Here a vessel, the SEMAN, that harvests energy and grows food allows for the colonization of the ocean. This civilization appears to be capable of producing 400 million sea-based and 150 million land-based jobs, and replacing fossil fuels as our energy source.

If an equilibrium population is unstable, and population growth is necessary, colonization of space will be required. This appears feasible by use of a momentum beam type booster (see the Aquater2050.com December entry ap6).

Notes

1. More details and references are given on Aquater2050.com. for members.

2. For those interested in aiding the completion of the SEMAN prototype to speed the development of these new jobs, a donation button is provided on this site.

3. To donate to help complete the prototype, click on the “Add to Cart” button on the Home Page.

4. To see progress on the prototype, click on “SEMAN Prototype Update”.